Amid one of the most challenging periods for the trucking industry, a glimmer of hope is emerging: oil and fuel prices are expected to continue falling through the end of 2025 and into the first quarter of 2026. For truckers and small fleets in California—one of the states with the highest diesel prices in the country—this decline would bring much-needed relief in a freight market that has yet to recover.

The OOIDA Foundation maintains a pessimistic outlook for the sector, warning that an upswing still seems far off. Andrew King, the Foundation’s research director, explains that the problem isn’t just falling rates: “Operating costs keep rising, and that combination creates an extremely difficult scenario.” Although tariffs continue to squeeze margins, fuel has been one of the few costs not significantly affected.

The latest projections from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) show U.S. oil production reaching 13.6 million barrels per day in 2025 and 2026, boosting global supply. This has pushed Brent crude prices down from $82 in 2023 to an estimated $55 per barrel in 2026, with a potential low of $54 in the first quarter.

Nationally, the EIA forecasts an average diesel price of $3.50 per gallon in 2026—about 7% lower than in 2024. In California, where fuel costs typically exceed the national average due to taxes, environmental regulations, and the CARB-specific blend, prices could stabilize between $4.20 and $4.60 per gallon depending on the region.

For early 2026, carriers can expect:

• A moderate but steady decline in diesel prices

• Less volatility as global reserves increase

• Slight operational relief, even if the freight market remains weak

According to the EIA, “as oil prices fall, so does its share of the cost of fuel.” At a time when every dollar matters, this potential drop in energy costs could become one of the few bright spots for the trucking industry in 2026.